I don’t really like it when people say, “Evolution is just a theory.”
Technically they are right but it is very solid theory. There is a mountain of evidence in favor of it and zero admissible evidence in favor of it’s alternatives.
So it is with a little hesitation that I have to point out that “Global warming is just a theory.”
There was a discussion on the radio about the scientific concensus on the issue. The theme the host was hitting up was along the lines of, “Global Warming is a sure, proven thing. It is just simple physics and all the scientists agree. The only reason that a person would be skeptical is because of disinformation from the industrial lobby.” The scientist were a bit better (they tend to distinguish themselves from talk show hosts that way) and restricted themselves to talking about the sort of evidence they have like tree rings, sediment patterns, glacier cores and paths and what the evidence suggests.
“There is a simple and compelling theory as well as a great deal of evidence. Why shouldn’t I be convinced?” you may ask.
Go ahead and be convinced but don’t overstate yourself. Here is the concept we are trying to get our hands on: variation in global average temperature as a function of atmospheric content. Neither of which are easy to measure. As we go back in time, the data rapidly gets much much thinner. This is still very similar to the fossil record. The difference is that if I find one transitional species, that constitutes very powerful evidence for evolution existing. If you show me a temperature curve for only a single location (e.g. a glacier) that constitutes relatively weak evidence for global, as in everywhere, warming.
Let me digress a second and talk about the big worry about positive feedback. There are a few potential positive feedback loops available to this sort of ecological “crisis.” On of the easiest to grasp is that snow reflects sunlight. Less snow means more solar absorbtion which leads to more heat and less snow.
Let’s suppose that this sort of mechanism could lead to some sort of unrecoverable catastrophe. Why hasn’t such a catastrophe already occurred? The very same glaciers tell of pretty substantial temperature fluctuations. I suppose that if there were an uncontrolled positive feedback mechanism, then it would have been triggered by now. Since that hasn’t happened, it is suggested that there is an overarching negative feedback that regulates this problem.
That said, we are putting nature to some tests that it probably hasn’t seen before.
Back to my mean thread. The evidence right now is very strong that both CO2 and temperatures have increased for at least the last fifty years, with the Mauna Loa graph being the most popular. We also know the mechanism by which CO2 can increase temperature. There is an abnormally high level of CO2 in the atmosphere. Since people are a major source of CO2, we should maybe try to do something about it.
All of the efforts that I keep hearing about are passive ones e.g. “don’t burn coal.” Sounds good but coal is really cheap way to get heat which we can use to cook food, heat buildings and make steam to turn turbines that generate electricity. Looking into alternatives seems wise to me.
But what I really want to hear about is some more active ideas. The glacial record suggests that the CO2 level has risen and dropped pretty dramatically in the past. Some active engineering might be able reproduce such a drop. Think about it.
Running the numbers, putting shiney stuff on our roofs might not quite do it. But feeding ocean plankton might be a smart way to go about it. There are a ton of substances that absorb the shit. I don’t think it is unreasonable to imagine an industrial-chemical solution a little more agressive than eco-cement.=
I haven’t really thought about this very hard yet, let alone researched it. Go ahead, set me straight.